Why do the pundits think Obama is ahead?
Last Thursday, Rush touched on a topic that has been annoying me for a few weeks. During the last week we have had a large number of media stories about the polls being skewed. The template of every analysis given from both the left and the right goes something like this:
"Well, when you look at the polls, they are obviously wrong. Expecting Democrat turnout to exceed 2008 is unrealistic."
"I think Obama is ahead, but not by that much"
Why do you think Obama is ahead? I've heard at least a dozen pundits say exactly the same thing, and it is maddening. You poke holes in a data set and convince the audience that you can't trust the data. You then follow up with an analysis that is based 100% on opinion without any data to back up the opinion.
At least when I post my analysis, I have a mathematical model to back it up. My model might be wrong, but it isn't conjecture. And when the model moves the polls toward Obama (like today), I'm not going to hide it.
Rush offered an opinion on the "why" that sounds pretty accurate to me.
I think they really do believe it. I think people that say it believe it, and I don't necessarily believe they're fatalists. You know why they believe it? It's real simple. They think the Romney campaign is a dud. The Romney campaign is not exciting them, so they don't think the Romney campaign's exciting anybody. They think Romney's not going after Obama nearly enough. They don't think Romney's doing anything memorable in the campaign. Not a day goes by that people say, "Wow, did you hear what Mitt said today?" That hasn't happened. There's no apparent real energy coming out of the Romney campaign, despite all the crowds he's drawing. So I think people, honestly, in their own minds, are legitimately thinking Obama's winning because they think the Romney campaign's so dull.Last night on Fox, I watched the panel discuss what Romney needs to do to win the debate. They were all over the place. One wants him to attack Obama, another wants him to have a "human moment". The common denominator is they want him to do something different than what he is doing today.
In other words, it is a bunch of arm chair quarterbacks.
The truth is that the election is very close, and we can't tell from the polling who is ahead. Anyone who tells you "Obama is ahead" is giving you an opinion, and has no facts to back it up. At best they can only say "Obama is ahead, given a specific set of assumptions about turnout".