October 18, 2012 Ohio AnalysisSince Survey USA and PPP have recently released Ohio polls, I thought it would be good to take a look at the state again. There are a lot of nervous people out there worrying that Romney can't win Ohio and agitating for him to go after Pennsylvania or Michigan.
Don't panic, Romney is fine in Ohio.
The panic is being induced by some silly weighting samples in the Ohio polls. They don't match anything approaching reality. Survey USA is using a D+7, ARG has a D+9, Gravis a D+6, and NBJ/WSJ a D+11.
Since it came out last night, let's take a look at the Survey USA poll. It uses a D/R/I sample of 39/32/26, which is almost identical to the 2008 turnout in Ohio. With this sample they are noting Independents favor Romney by 8 points, and Obama leads by 3 points 45-42.
However, if we apply the various turnout models to these results we get the following:
R+9.04% - Using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.56% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.78% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+5.06% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+2.85% - Using a D+3 turnout model
So in this "Obama +3" poll, Obama really only has a slight lead in a 2008 turnout scenario. Romney leads comfortably in all others, including the magical "D+3" scenario that is so popular this cycle.
Here are the results from all of the current polls in the RCP average (including PPP):
O+3 - Survey USA
O+4 - CNN/ORG
R+1 - ARG
O+1 - Rasmussen
R+1 - Gravis
O+6 - NBC/WSJ
O+5 - PPP
O+2.43% - Current RCP Average
R+7.35% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+2.25% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.09% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.37% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+1.16% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
Even if Obama is able to get Democrats to turnout at a rate 3% higher than Republicans, he is still losing by over 1 point. Romney is clearly leading in Ohio right now.