Tuesday, October 9, 2012

October 9, 2012 Analysis

A very surprising "no change" today

Polls included:
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
Even - National Journal
O+1 - Battleground
R+4 - Pew

O+0.50% - Current RCP Average
O+1.04% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.76% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.81% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.45% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Yesterday I stated that I expected Rasmussen to drop to an Obama lead today, based on a very good polling day for Romney on Friday.  With Friday dropping from the average, the average should have been dominated by the weekend polling, and pushed the average toward Obama slightly.

That didn't happen.  Rasmussen continues to show a tie.

This means that the Monday polling matched the Romney support in the Friday polling.  It provides another point of confirmation that Romney's debate win, and the subsequent coverage is moving this election strongly toward Romney.  Without some significant event to change the dynamics of the race, Romney will win the election handily.


  1. I'm just amazed that PPP shows Romney leading nationally by 2 points, but Rasmussen shows a tie.

    I hope your prediction is right and Romney wins handily. Logically, Romney SHOULD win this easily, but then again, I honestly thought this thing would be pronounced "over" after the Convention with Romney leading by 4-5 points in most polls going into Election Day. I suppose much of that is a result of the dishonest Partisan makeup of polls.

    What I keep coming back to is, incumbent Presidents don't win by "squeakers", and that's the only scenario I see right now for an Obama win.

    Incumbent Presidents are either comfortably reelected or lose big. There has never in history been a President reelected on a margin lower than what they won on their first term.

  2. Polling over a weekend always has an underlying cyclic trend due to the weekend. I'm not sure if it's been studied in depth, but AFAIK, it's generally favorable to democratic response rates; with the conventional wisdom (which could be wrong) that republicans skew more toward older, married, family respondents.

    Obama was lucky the polling overlapped sat/Sunday and temporarily truncated the Romney movement. But as we've seen today, it's across the board.