October 9, 2012 AnalysisA very surprising "no change" today
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+1 - Battleground
R+4 - Pew
O+0.50% - Current RCP Average
O+1.04% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.76% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.81% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.45% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Yesterday I stated that I expected Rasmussen to drop to an Obama lead today, based on a very good polling day for Romney on Friday. With Friday dropping from the average, the average should have been dominated by the weekend polling, and pushed the average toward Obama slightly.
That didn't happen. Rasmussen continues to show a tie.
This means that the Monday polling matched the Romney support in the Friday polling. It provides another point of confirmation that Romney's debate win, and the subsequent coverage is moving this election strongly toward Romney. Without some significant event to change the dynamics of the race, Romney will win the election handily.