Tuesday, October 30, 2012

October 30, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
Even - ABC/WaPo

O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR

R+0.81% - Current RCP Average
O+0.13% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.63% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.86% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.91% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.65% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped the NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, CBS, and AP/GfK polls over night, and included the Pew and NPR polls.  Despite all of this movement, the overall averages didn't change too much.

Rasmussen dropped to R+2 as he typically does with the weekend polling.  He will start to move back out to R+4 or R+5 as the Sat/Sun samples drop out of his poll.

Gallup increased back to R+5 and is looking to be on track for winning the award for most accurate when everything is done.  I'm pretty surprised by this, and am gaining new respect for their polling.  I just wish I could see their internals.

IBD/Tipp is not polling because of Hurricane Sandy, so no change.

ABC/WaPo is acting weird.  They keep increasing their partisan sample to make it more Democrat.  In the last 3 or 4 days they have moved from D+4 to D+7.  Despite finding Independents preferring Romney by 10 points, they show a tie.

Independents continue to favor Romney by an average of 8% across all 7 polls.

The important thing is that this is the 3rd day in a row that support for Romney has increased across all models, this time 0.1%.  Note that again, my models are all showing movement toward Romney, while the RCP remains flat.  I plan to post about this trend line later today, but there is clear movement in all polls toward Romney in the last 3 days.

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