Sunday, October 28, 2012

October 28, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+4 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+2.1 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+2 - CBS
R+2 - AP/GfK

R+0.99% - Current RCP Average
O+0.51% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.50% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.25% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

The meme over the last two days has been the "Romney's momentum has stalled" with various people, like Nate Silver trying to prove that with dubious mathematics.  Romney's momentum has only stalled in the sense that there is no one left to convince.  Rasmussen moved out to a 4 point lead, with a 5 point lead in his swing state tracking poll.  Gallup remained at 5.  Even the horribly over sampled IBD/Tipp poll moved toward Romney as some undecideds decided to vote for him.  Independents are favoring Romney by insane amounts.  Rasmussen is seeing Romney lead them by 23 points.  On the Economy sub samples, Romney is simply crushing Obama.

This has led to the second meme that is developing.  There really needs to be a name for this one, similar to Godwin's Law (the first person to call the other a Nazi loses).  Losing campaigns always fall back on "we might lose the popular vote, but still win the Electoral College".  Several media outlets started floating this one yesterday pointing to "Ohio's stubborn refusal to follow national trends and support Romney".  Rubbish.  If Romney wins nationally by over 2 points, he will win the Electoral College too.  And considering where the Rasmussen and Gallup party identification numbers are sitting right now, a 5 or 6 point Romney win is looking very possible.

And Romney is leading in Ohio.  I will offer further proof in my next post.


  1. Don't forget the "peaked too soon" nonsense...I'm hearing/seeing that from all the usual suspects now. I think that the latest Romney/Ryan fundraising drive being called "Expand The Map" is a good sign, too.

    Thanks for all the hard work, Dave. I think that I might be looking forward to seeing you get to rub some folks faces in your analysis on Nov. 7 as you probably are. (fingers crossed).

  2. Monday's Politco/Battleground poll will show R +5.

    1. I heard that was coming. I'm looking forward to posting about it.

  3. Dear Dave,

    Thanks so much for all your hard work. It has been a blessing to my sanity, and a confirmation of what my eyeballs were actually seeing! Our family really appreciates the efforts!!!!!!!

    FYI- I passed your link over at Weasel Zippers to calm some fears over Ohio. LOL! Folks are freaking out.

  4. I'm glad it is helping. I wish people could see the truth of what is going on, but I realize that I'm asking people to believe two hard things. First that their fears that Obama leads isn't true, and second that a large percentage of polls are wrong due to malicious intent or incompetence.

    We've been lied to by the media for so many years, you wouldn't think that it is a mental leap to see that media polling is also lying, but apparently it is.

    1. My feeling is that the media polls are wrong because they are hoping against hope that Obama gets the same historic turnout he did in 2008. As if they are rationalizing to themselves that an incumbent SHOULD get the same turnout. But they lie to themselves by totally ignoring what happened in 2010. I don't believe their intent is malicious. They are just trying to find a way out of the inevitable.

    2. I think it is a mix. I think some of the polls are exactly as you say. Others I know are working with the Obama campaign. The end result is the same.

      Numbersmuncher also has an interesting take on it, regarding Ohio. Democrats are lying to the pollsters saying they already voted, when we can prove that is not true. It sends them straight through into the likely voter pool, inflating the Democrat support.

  5. One thing here. I am not a "polls are lying" guy. If the polls were honestly showing bad results for Romney, I would say so. I did that a few days ago with the CBS poll. But a fair reading of the internals on these polls shows that the data simply doesn't support their top line numbers. The numbers in Ohio and nationally simply don't add up unless the Democrats can turn out at 6% higher levels than Republicans. That is an absurd notion, given how many millions of dollars the Romney campaign and the RNC have dedicated to turnout operations.

  6. I certainly pray you are right about Romney and pray he wins the election.Our country needs this God fearing man at the helm for us .He seems to have handle on things ecomically wise.I voted for him already here in Texas.Praying praying praying.