Saturday, October 20, 2012

October 20, 2012 Ohio Update

The new Fox Ohio poll was causing considerable discussion last night.  I went ahead and updated my Ohio analysis using this poll.

First of all, this poll is yet another poll with a ridiculous Democrat over sample of D+8.  There are a lot of polling firms that will have a lot of egg on their faces come November, because they have been assuming turnout that matches 2008.  This poll in particular finds a preference by Independents for Romney of an incredible 24%.   With only 23% Independents in the sample, this preference is severely dampened.

Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:

R+9.95% - Using the 2004 turnout model
R+1.35% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+7.02% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+6.28% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+4.43% - Using a D+3 turnout model

Romney has a large, healthy lead in all Ohio turnout models, including if the electorate matches 2008.

Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:

Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
R+1 - ARG
O+1 - Rasmussen
R+1 - Gravis
O+5 - PPP
O+3 - Fox

O+2.50% - Current RCP Average
R+7.75% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+1.72% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.53% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.82% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+1.65% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

With this new Fox poll, Romney extends his lead in Ohio by about a half a point across all turnout models.


  1. Hi Dave,

    New visitor (found through Ace's site) but wanted to say thanks for your analysis; puts things in perspective. If it holds true on election day, got to wonder what the excuses will be from the so-called polling experts.

  2. I came across these updated OH absentee numbers by county. I won't get a good look at them until tomorrow, but we can easily bound Obama's possible turn-out to under 2008 levels.

    I know you already knew this, but it's nice to have firm numbers!

    1. Yeah, I love confirmation. I get nervous too.

  3. Nice work, and thanks for the update in the comments at Ace today.