Tuesday, October 9, 2012

IBD/TIPP Poll - October 9, 2012

Likely Voter, 797 sample size, Romney leads 47-45, 8% undecided.

The wheels have come off the Obama bus.

This poll gives us a crazy D+8 sample that still results in a 2 point Romney lead.  They get there through an astounding Independent preference of 18% for Romney.  The D/R/I of the poll is 39/31/30.  You know what is going to happen when this goes through the models, right?  Of course you do:

R+2 - Current result
R+5.2 - 2008 turnout
R+10.2 - 2010 turnout
R+10.3 - 2004 turnout
R+12.0 - Rasmussen Party ID

Under every turnout model, Romney holds a commanding lead in this poll.  Even with a turnout matching 2008, Romney's lead is outside the margin of error.  I will be including this in tomorrow's polling averages.

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