Tuesday, October 9, 2012

I guess these races are over

This is a fascinating story.  The President of Suffolk University Political Research Center announced on O'Reilly tonight that they will not bother to poll in Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia any longer.  In their opinion, these states have been won by Romney, and they are going to focus on other states.

Florida = 29 EV
North Carolina = 15 EV
Virginia = 13 EV
Total = 57 EV

In practical terms, Romney only needs 22 more electoral votes to win.  Ohio and any other state would work.  So would Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado.


  1. Dave,

    I'm feeling good about Romney's chances as well, but don't you think this is a bit premature?

    My "shoot from the hip" analysis is North Carolina is a done deal, Florida is probably an 85% chance to go to Romney, but Virginia is probably a bit up in the air. I would rate VA though as more likely to go Romney than Ohio.

    If Romney wins all 3 (NC, FL, VA), I would rate his odds at 95% that he's President. I just don't see a scenario where he wins all 3, but loses all the other swing states.

  2. I find it odd, I mean, their most recent Oct. 2 LV Florida poll had O 45 R 43

    Is the cake already baked? probably but not certain.

  3. I don't know. I pretty familiar with Florida, obviously, but not Virginia.

    I know someone who works for a pollster, they are the ones calling people in specific states. She says that since the debate, Florida respondents have been overwhelmingly solid votes for Romney. The Romney visits over the weekend to "swing" areas felt like (and were reported on) like victory parties.

    I think Florida is over, we won't get another visit by any candidate. They may be seeing the same effect in VA.

  4. The key thing you said is "after the debate". Presumably those voters were on the fence. That part of the electorate is somewhat fluid.
    On the other hand a lot of previous undecideds could have been independents that are 'former' republicans and come election day they will all go R.
    One thing I saw in Rasmussen last week was 46% were certain to vote for Romney and only *40%* for Obama. So Obamas support is very soft.