Sunday, October 7, 2012

October 7, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
Even - National Journal

O+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.67% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.30% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.45% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.95% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Slight changes today as Rasmussen reports a drop in Independent advantage for Romney to 7%.  His Saturday polling post debate was about the same as his Wednesday polling pre-debate.  Given that it is Saturday polling, historically about +3 better for Democrats, that would indicate that Rasmussen is seeing about a 3 to 4 point swing toward Romney over all.  We will know better on Wednesday when both Friday and Saturday have dropped out of the average.

Overall, a very good showing for Romney right now.  Obama needs close to a 2008 turnout advantage to win the election.  Under all reasonable turnout models, Romney holds a decisive advantage.

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