October 7, 2012 Analysis
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.67% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.30% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.45% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.95% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Slight changes today as Rasmussen reports a drop in Independent advantage for Romney to 7%. His Saturday polling post debate was about the same as his Wednesday polling pre-debate. Given that it is Saturday polling, historically about +3 better for Democrats, that would indicate that Rasmussen is seeing about a 3 to 4 point swing toward Romney over all. We will know better on Wednesday when both Friday and Saturday have dropped out of the average.
Overall, a very good showing for Romney right now. Obama needs close to a 2008 turnout advantage to win the election. Under all reasonable turnout models, Romney holds a decisive advantage.