October 20, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
Even - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+2 - IBD/Tipp
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
O+3 - Hartford Courant/UConn
O+0.96% - Current RCP Average
O+0.65% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.02% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.15% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.22% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.84% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
Rasmussen dropped Monday from his average, which was a good day for Romney. However, he is warning that Obama's increase is coming solely from good polling on Tuesday prior to the debate. Polling since the debate has been showing small increased support for Romney. Depending on how polling went yesterday, the Rasmussen track should move to Romney +1 or +2 today.
The IBD/Tipp poll continues to defy logic. Their insistence on a D+7 sample is going to be their hill to die on. They like to talk about their accuracy last cycle, but if this is their model, that accuracy is based on being lucky to have a sample that matched the turnout. Obama is pulled down in this poll thanks to an 11 point preference by Independents for Romney.
The Hartford Courant in now included in the average, which I posted about yesterday. They need a 47% Democrat sample to get to Obama +3.
The numbers tightened slightly due to these changes. Romney still leads in the D+3 model by 2 point, which puts him right under the 50% mark. I consider this to be the worst case turnout model. I think 2010 is the most likely model, which puts Romney at 51%, matching what Gallup is showing. Regardless, Romney continues to lead nationally.
At this moment, Romney will win the Electoral College by at least 285 to 254.