NBC/WSJ Poll - October 21, 2012
Likely Voter, 816 sample size, Tied 47-47, 4% undecided.
The release of this poll was greeted with media cries of amazement, "Look it's tied!". The only problem is that it isn't. This poll continues to show Romney's polling lead. The DRI of this poll is 44/38/18, of D+6. They don't provide any information regarding independent preference between Obama and Romney.
When we adjust this result to the different models, we get the following results:
Even - Current result
R+1.4 - 2008 turnout
R+3.8 - D+3 turnout
R+5.7 - 2010 turnout
R+5.8 - 2004 turnout
R+7.1 - Rasmussen Party ID
Notice that this poll confirms the Gallup results. Reportedly, Gallup is using an R+1 sample. In the 2010 model, which is close to R+1, this poll would give Romney 52%, exactly the same as Gallup.
There is a lot of foolish criticism being leveled at Gallup, calling it an outlier. People who should know better, like Rove and Cadell are saying this. What they fail to see (or report) is that most of these polls are showing the Romney lead at about 52%, if they also used an R+1 sample.
It is going to be very interesting to see if all of these pollsters are going to ride their D+7 samples all the way to election day, or if they will finally come back to reality.