Fox News Poll - October 10, 2012Likely Voter, 1109 sample size, Romney leads 46-45, 6% undecided.
The Fox News poll has traditionally been tough on Republicans, without being heavily over sampled with Democrats. As usual, they undersample Independents in this poll, which hides much of Romney's support, since they break toward Romney by 16 points. This is actually a major shift, since 3 weeks ago Independents favored Obama by 10 in this poll. The D/R/I is 40/39/20, which is many too few Independents to be representative.
R+1 - Current result
O+0.5 - 2008 turnout
R+3.9 - 2010 turnout
R+3.8 - 2004 turnout
R+5.5 - Rasmussen Party ID
Only under a 2008 turnout model does Obama have a lead, and it is a very slight one at that.