Saturday, October 27, 2012

October 27, 2012 Ohio Update

Three new polls entered the RCP average yesterday, bringing the total number of polls up to a mind numbing 11.  The Purple Strategies, and ARG polls were very good for Romney, while the CNN/ORG poll was good for Obama:

Purple Strategies: Obama +2, D/R/I 34/27/39, Ind +2 for Romney
CNN/ORG : Obama +4, D/R/I 35/32/33, Ind +5 for Obama
ARG: Obama +2, D/R/I 43/34/23, Ind +21 for Romney

The ARG one is particularly amusing, with a 21 point lead for Romney with Independents and a D+9 sample.  There sure appears to be a concerted effort to not report a poll in Ohio that has Romney ahead.  This is the kind of thing that is leading to Ace's angst.

Anyway, with these new polls in the average, things don't change very much:

Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
Even - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+5 -Quinnipiac
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
Even - Suffolk
O+5 - Time
O+2 - Purple Strategies
O+2 - ARG

O+2.27% - Current RCP Average
R+8.53% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+1.08% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.27% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.33% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

About a half point drop for Romney across all the models, however, Romney continues to lead comfortably.  Keep in mind the early voting information that was published yesterday by the Romney campaign.  Democrats are under performing their 2008 early vote totals by 8.05% while Republicans are over performing their 2008 totals by 5.82%.  Obama can not reach the 2008 vote totals he had with this level of early voting, and especially when losing Independents.  Across all 11 polls, Romney is leading with Independents by an average of 10 points. The best result Obama can hope for is a D+3 result, which puts him over 2 points behind, given the preference Independents have for Romney.


  1. Thank you, Dave, for all your hard work. In my heart of hearts I really feel that Romney will prevail. I may not be as wildly optimistic as some, but I don't think it will be that close, either. I read Ace of Spades, but I don't understand the idea of making fun of people on our side, such as Dick Morris. We have leftists to do that, so I don't see why we don't pull together more. Again, thanks for all you do to keep me optimistic.

  2. I believe Romney will prevail in Ohio, but I can certainly understand conservatives fretting when poll after poll released shows Obama ahead in Ohio or Romney being tied. What people aren't seeing are the eye-popping margins Romney is winning independents and the absurd models pollsters are pushing. Thanks again Dave for pulling the curtain back. I truly believe the MSM is gaming these to "keep hope alive" for the base to turn out.

    I talked to a friend that's working with a outside conservative group in Nevada and he believes the state will actually go Romney (and he's not a Pollyanna about these things, early on in the election he was dim on Romney's chances to beat Obama) Nevada isn't even on most people's radar.

    I do think Romney needs to have other paths in case the Democrats narrowly swipe Ohio. In 2004, when Bush had a solid win in the popular vote, the election came down to basically the amount of people at a college football game in Ohio. Had gay marriage not been on the ballot, Kerry very well may have prevailed.

  3. Dave,

    Thanks for the enlightening info. The biggest thing that concerns me is if the RCP average tends to turn out to be accurate. Historically the average poll (poll of polls if you will) tends to work well.
    Having said that, historically no one tried to push a D+9 sample, repeatedly. So yeah, "unprecidented."
    Ultimately it's going to come down to ground game, here's hoping Romney can beat the margin of fraud. (The only poll that matters is the one in 1.5 weeks!)

    1. It has been obvious for the last 2 cycles that RCP can be gamed. I got wind in December that the Obama campaign was going to do that as part of their strategy.

      Either the polls shift to reflect reality in the next week, or we can toss out that "RCP tends to be accurate" meme.

      But we will know in 10 days.

  4. I'm questioning the validity of these polls that either have 1) High D+ samples with very high independent totals breaking for Romney, or 2) Realistic samples, but virtual ties in independents.

    But, I'm with Ace on worrying about Ohio. I can't get myself to believe that EVERY pollster is in the tank for Obama. I just don't know what to make of these polls.

    1. Put it this way. Until last Friday I would not have believed that our Government would specifically choose to let American's die. So my cynicism level is at eleven.

      Besides, as I posted above, I heard in December that this poll trick was going to be part of the campaign. I don't think it is all of them. But when I look at polls like ARG, it becomes just insane. 21 point lead with Independents, but Romney doesn't lead? My BS detector is off the chart.

    2. The numbers just don't add up. Somewhere, someone is lying. What worries me most is not knowing where.