Wednesday, October 31, 2012

October 31, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR

R+0.71% - Current RCP Average
O+0.42% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.37% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.63% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.67% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.43% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped brought the CBS/NYT poll back into the average.  Rasmussen and Gallup did not change yesterday, while IBD/Tipp suspended polling due to the hurricane.  ABC/WaPo updated their tracking poll, showing a 2 point move toward Romney, but this was accomplished through a sample shift from D+7 to D+5, so the averages in the models did not change due to this particular poll.  The average support from Independents remains Romney +8.

Overall, Romney gave back some of the ground he has gained over the last few days due to the CBS/NYT poll pulling the averages down.  We will see what happens with Rasmussen today as the Saturday sample drops out of his tracking poll.

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