A Small, Yet Important PointA lot of people have noticed that historically, Ohio tends to vote slightly more Republican than the national results. Going back a number of years, Ohio votes consistently about .5% more toward the GOP than the national share the GOP gets.
I'm also seeing a lot of angst about the Ohio RCP. "I'd be more comfortable if that would stop showing Romney tied!".
This is where the reweighting I am doing shows the truth of the matter. Look at the D+3 turnout model.
D+3 national average: Romney +2.17%
D+3 Ohio average: Romney +2.79%
If Ohio has a similar turnout to what is seen nationally, then Ohio will show .62% more support for Romney than his national share.
Quit stressing out about Ohio.