CNN/Opinion Research Poll - October 1, 2012
Likely Voter, 783 sample size, Obama leads 50-47, 1% undecided.
Another new poll was released and will be included in my average tomorrow. The partisan ID for this poll includes a heavy Democrat skew in their likely voter model with a D/R/I of 37/29/34. Independents favor Romney by 8% in this poll. This result would only be possible if Democrats turned out in the same percentage as in 2008 and twice as many Republicans stayed home as did in 2008.
The turnout models give the following results:
O+3 - Current result
O+2.2 - 2008 turnout
R+3.2 - 2010 turnout
R+3.4 - 2004 turnout
R+4.6 - Rasmussen Party ID
With these results, Romney will again be in the lead in the poll averages, unless Rasmussen reports an increase in Obama support tomorrow morning.