Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Senate Update - Panic in the Disco edition

I hate when Fox does those stupid "look at the Senate" pieces during the panel, because they always end up with me dealing with nervous people thinking we are on the verge of losing the Senate.  I actually like Kevin Dujan's term for what Fox is doing, "Fear Porn".

Anyway, not much changed in the Senate polling since last time, but I'll make some pessimistic assumptions just to address everyone's fears.

Here is my opinion on all 16 of the current Senate races I am following.
  • Nebraska 85% -  Charles Lane tried to argue that Fisher is dropping back in this race.  Yes there is a new poll showing Fisher only up by 3 at 49-46.  But the same poll says that Kerry wins Independents by 24 points.  Given Romney's lead in Nebraska, this is just not credible.  But I'll drop this to 85% anyway, just to appease the nervous folks.
  • Indiana 50% - Today the panic is that Mourdock says his internal polls put him in a tie 44-44, and other polls show Donnelly leading.  I think all this discussion of ticket splitting is crap, myself.  Everyone knows that if you don't elect Republican Senators, then Obamacare remains law forever.  But I'll go ahead and drop this down to 50/50.
  • Nevada 100% - Poll released yesterday has Heller up 6.  I still think this race is over.
  • Wisconsin 80% - Rasmussen is still showing Thompson with a 1 point lead, and is polling better than Romney.  As hard as Romney is pushing to win this state, I don't see Thompson losing.  Increasing these odds to 80%
  • Montana 60% - The polling still hasn't changed.  Last night someone on the Fox panel tried to argue that a 3rd party candidate will stop the GOP.  Not this year.  Tester is an incumbent and stuck at 48%.  Undecideds will break toward Rehberg, and Romney will have coattails.
  • Massachusetts 50% - I'm moving this up to 50/50.  The polling still favors Warren, but the final debate was cancelled.  Warren wanted to reschedule, but Brown said no.  Losing campaigns are the ones that want to reschedule a debate.
  • Virginia 75% - Latest poll is Quinnipiac with Kaine leading by 4.  In a D+7 poll.  If Virginia turns out D+7, it doesn't matter who controls the Senate, because Obama will be President.
  • Florida 25% - The polling continues to be bad for Mack.  He is losing to Nelson by 13 in a D+7 poll.  While Nelson is still under 50%, I'm not seeing the movement needed to overtake him.  I've been watching the Mack ads for months, and he is really a poor candidate.
  • Ohio 60% - Pulling this number back a bit.  Mandel is under performing Romney in Ohio.  If Romney wins by the 4-5% I think he is likely to, then Mandel will also win.  If it is 2%, then Mandel probably loses barely.  I do think Mandel's polling is also being affected by the "Lying Democrat" issue.
  • New Mexico 10% - I don't think anyone is bother to even poll here any longer.  Pretty sure the Dems will win this race.
  • North Dakota 85% - Berg is up 2 points in a recent Mason Dixon poll, but Romney will win by double digits.  I'll pull this one back to 85% just to appease the nervous folks.
  • Missouri 50% - Mason Dixon giveth, Mason Dixon taketh away.  Latest poll puts Akin within 2, and McCaskill stuck at 45%.  They REALLY don't like her in Missouri.  I'm moving this up to 50/50.  I don't see how Akin loses this right now.
  • Michigan 10% -  No one is even polling this race.
  • Maine 10% - The Independent will win this race.  He could decide to caucus with the GOP, especially if it means being in the majority.
  • Pennsylvania 40% - Casey's top line number is stuck in the mid to high 40s.  Some polls are showing Smith getting very close.  This would be my upset special.
  • Connecticut 25% - Rasmussen showing Murphy back out to a 6 point lead.  This race will depend on how much the people of Connecticut want to save their insurance industry.
So again, this is the pessimistic version of the odds.

Odds of at least a tie in Senate = 90.8%
Odds of winning the Senate = 79.5%


  1. Dave,

    Thanks for the update. What can I say, we conservatives are a bunch of Nervous Nellies that need to be comforted :)

    I'm actually thinking Akin pulls it through, I could see there being a big "Bradley" effect of sorts where people are embararassed to tell a pollster they are voting for him. If he's polling within the margin of error in slanted MSM polls, he's probably going to win, especially since Romney will likely take the state by just under double digits. If Akin wins, the Senate is almost guaranteed for the GOP.

    The other races are Brown, Allen, and Mandel. I'm nervous about all 3, if we can snag at least 1, I'll be happy. A few weeks ago, I had thought Brown had put Warren away, but had written off both Mandel and Allen as coming up just short. But with Virginia long gone for Obama, Allen might be the one that pulls through.

  2. Thanks Dave:

    If this is your pessimistic take, then I'm feeling reassured that we take the Senate. And I hope that that Commie bastard Sherrod Brown gets his ass kicked by that nice Jewish Marine!

    "J.J. Sefton"

  3. Nice breakdown as usual, Dave!

  4. I *almost* updated this to increase the Virginia odds, since the Roanoke poll released today showing Romney and Allen up 5. The sample on that poll is D+4 too.

    But I decided to stick with the pessimistic meme and leave VA at 75%.

  5. Thanks Dave...especially good news about Virginia. I worry about Allen; I don't think much of him as a candidate, but maybe he'll pull through with the help of Romney's coat tails.

    I think the thing with conservatives this time around is that they mostly realize just how much is at stake with this election and are afraid to get their hopes up. That's where a lot of the anxiety is coming from.

  6. What about the Senate race in Hawaii? I hear Lingle is running strongly.

    1. I was counting it originally in my list of 16, but Lingle was so far behind that I stopped tracking it. If she is doing better, than these odds go up a little.

    2. That sucks. She was doing pretty well earlier in the year but Hawaii is like the most consistently liberal state so it makes sense.

  7. I live in MO and strangely I think Akin is going to pull this off. Missourians are pretty pro-life around here and the last poll I saw has Romney up like 12 points in MO. With those kind of coat tails and the amount of hatred we have around here for McCaskill I'm more hopeful about Akin winning then I was a month ago.

    1. I really hope you're correct. I live in AZ so you have a better sense of the race in MO. He'd probably be a good Senator but he did show selfishness in not dropping out.

  8. Does the Menendez scandal put NJ into play at all, or will that analysis have to wait until we see if it gets into the NJ papers and local news cycles?

    At this point, I think it is too late, because all news stories will be on the Sandy aftermath.

    Perhaps Christie will be able to name a replacement, should this story turn out to be true.

    1. I can't see it making a difference. It's too late, and all the NJ voters are occupied trying to get their lives back. That seat was never in play.

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