Friday, October 26, 2012

October 26, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+3 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+3 - Gallup
O+2 - IBD/Tipp
R+3 - ABC/WaPo

R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+2 - CBS
R+2 - AP/GfK

R+0.90% - Current RCP Average
O+0.62% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.13% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.36% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.40% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.13% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

An unusual day yesterday when three of the four daily tracking polls showed the same results, Romney leading 50-47 (why is that 47% number so familiar?).  After reweighting, the IBD/Tipp poll is pretty close to the others, so it should also be close to 50-47, if it wasn't for their weird sample.

Overall the averages remained stable, with about .25% more support for Romney across the board.  Just a reminder, Romney continues to outperform the national averages in Ohio by about .5%.  He is ahead by 2.13% nationally with a D+3 turnout, but ahead by 2.72% in Ohio using the same turnout. 


  1. Unsurprisingly, +.5R is also the historical divergence between Ohio and national. It's ours.

    Congrats on your first lefty troll, Dave! You're getting big. ;)

    1. Yeah, I noticed *sigh*

      I have arrived *double sigh*