TrendsSince I've now been posting these averages for 30 days now, I thought it would be worthwhile to take another look at the polling trends over the last month. The chart below shows the trends for the RCP Average, Rasmussen's daily track, and my 2008, 2010, D+3, and Rasmussen Party ID models.
There are a couple interesting things I'd like to point out. First of all, notice that the tracks for my models are remarkably stable, especially from 10/13, through 10/22. The tracks had a blip on the 22nd and 23rd, because I added Gallup into the mix on the 22nd, and RCP cycled 10 polls during those 2 days. But note how quickly the tracks returned to their steady state.
The two lines that aren't steady during these periods are Rasmussen's daily track, and the RCP average itself. The RCP average is wandering all over the place, while the reweight models stay on very steady horizontals.
Second, Obama's campaign was doing very well on October 1st. Romney's support had been degrading up to that point, and the trend line was looking bad. The race changed for good on October 6th. That is when the debate performance became a factor in the polls. Romney's support has never tapered off since. Romney had a slight increase in his lead after the VP debate, but that settled back to his level as of the 6th.
Finally, you can see from the graph that the RCP is averaging out to about a D+5 advantage across all of the polls. That is 2 points better for Obama than the best case scenario discussed by any pundit during this election season. There are going to be a lot of shocked people on November 7th.