Thursday, October 25, 2012

AP/GfK Poll - October 25, 2012

Likely Voter, 839 sample size, Romney leads 47-45, 4% undecided.

Update:  It was pointed out to me that I looked at the wrong table in the internals, so I've corrected.

The last time I looked at this poll, I used it as an example in my methodology explanation.  Back in September, it had a D+13 sample differential, with Democrats making up 50% of the overall partisan sample.  Now we have an example of a poll starting to reflect reality.  Using a likely voter screen, they end up with a D+4 sample, which has a D/R/I of 34/30/36.  They also show a slight preference of Independents for Romney by 2%.

Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:

R+2 - Current result
R+0.7 - 2008 turnout model
R+3.8 - D+3 turnout model
R+6.2 - 2010 turnout model
R+6.3 - 2004 turnout model
R+8.1 - Rasmussen Party ID

Another poll to include in the average showing a steady lead for Romney.


  1. Dave

    I think your numbers for party id include leaning independents under R and D - i.e. Table PID2. The numbers in PID1 gives D/R/I of 34/30/27 for likely voters. A more reasonable number of independents, but a D+4 sample now not a D+2, so upping your R estimates.


  2. Yeah, I considered just putting those Independents back into the Ind column. I don't like their methodology.

    I guess P1D1 might be a better choice, let me update.