Wednesday, October 10, 2012

October 10, 2012 Analysis

The Romney lead gets larger

Polls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+2 -IBD/Tipp
O+1 - Battleground
R+4 - Pew

R+0.60% - Current RCP Average
O+0.05% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.91% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.94% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.66% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

RCP dropped several pre-debate polls last night, and brought the IBD/Tipp poll into the average.  This dropped some polls that were good for Obama out, raising the averages across the board.

Rasmussen continues to improve as the weekend polling drops out of the average.  We should be seeing R+2 tomorrow.

Note that even with a turnout model equaling 2008, Obama would be in a true tossup situation.  Under current conditions, Obama has no chance of winning the election.

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