Monday, October 22, 2012

Monmouth Poll - October 22, 2012

Likely Voter, 1402 sample size, Romney leads 48-45, 5% undecided.

Another new poll, this time from Monmouth University.  This is a very large sample size, double what we see in other polls.  Typically, this means a lower margin of error.  The D/R/I for this poll is 35/31/34, which at D+4 isn't too bad, considering some of the other polls out there (Tipp I'm looking at you).  Independents in this poll favor Romney by a huge margin, 19%.

Putting these results through the models, we get the following:

R+3 - Current result
R+2.0 - 2008 turnout
R+4.9 - D+3 turnout
R+7.3 - 2010 turnout
R+7.3 - 2004 turnout
R+9.3 - Rasmussen Party ID

What can I say?  There is no good news for Obama in this poll, no matter how you slice it.

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