Monmouth Poll - October 22, 2012
Likely Voter, 1402 sample size, Romney leads 48-45, 5% undecided.
Another new poll, this time from Monmouth University. This is a very large sample size, double what we see in other polls. Typically, this means a lower margin of error. The D/R/I for this poll is 35/31/34, which at D+4 isn't too bad, considering some of the other polls out there (Tipp I'm looking at you). Independents in this poll favor Romney by a huge margin, 19%.
Putting these results through the models, we get the following:
R+3 - Current result
R+2.0 - 2008 turnout
R+4.9 - D+3 turnout
R+7.3 - 2010 turnout
R+7.3 - 2004 turnout
R+9.3 - Rasmussen Party ID
What can I say? There is no good news for Obama in this poll, no matter how you slice it.