Tuesday, October 23, 2012

October 23, 2012 Analysis

RCP dropped the Hartford Courant poll from their average, and included 4 new polls: Monmouth, Zogby, ABC/WaPo, and CBS.  This is one of those odd days where the RCP average didn't change much at all, but the underlying dynamics of the race did.  Most of the new polls added were very good for Obama, especially Zogby and CBS.  As a result, the overall averages under the different turnout models moved significantly in Obama's direction.

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+6 - Gallup
O+4 - IBD/Tipp
R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+1 - ABC/WaPo
O+2 - CBS

R+0.33% - Current RCP Average
O+1.16% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.57% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+3.76% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.81% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.51% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

In the last two days we have seen 6 new polls enter the average, and 4 polls drop out.  We now have 9 polls included which should be giving a decent statistical view on the current race.  Romney continues to lead in all turnout models that we can reasonably expect (D+3 or better), but his margin has shrunk by about .5% from where he was 2 or 3 days ago.


  1. I really appreciate how you're including all of the national trackers, even the somewhat shaky ones like Zogby. Better to look at all available information instead of handwaving away things that might be outliers or counter what seems like the state of the race.

  2. Thanks for the updates, Dave, even if the news isn't so good. Gosh, a turn back to Obama at this point seems really strange. Makes me distrust all of them, good or bad, less. Also hard to square this with stuff I've seen in the last day or so showing Mandel now up by 1 in Ohio and McMahon within 1 in Connecticut....how could those be moving in our direction but nationals be moving back toward Obama? Strange, strange stuff.

  3. The effect of the nationals is being driven by the poll selection in RCP. They have switched 10 polls out in 2 days, and two polls (Zogby and CBS) are VERY good for Obama. Those are driving the averages.

  4. If this morning's new Ras is actual response movement and not him starting to align partisan normalization to his own partisan polling, it looks really bad for Obama. Previous Ras assumption of about D+3 is probably O's best-case scenario.

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