October 17, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+1 - IBD/Tipp
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
O+0.17% - Current RCP Average
O+0.61% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.14% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.33% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.39% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.07% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
As I predicted, Rasmussen went back up to Romney +2 yesterday. With the Pew poll dropping out of the average and the Battleground poll going in, the top line Romney lead has shrunk. However, with the reweights, very little has changed. Romney retains a strong lead in all turnout models that have a realistic chance of occurring.
Expect some noisiness in the tracking polls over the next few days, especially IBD/Tipp since they continue to use a D+7 sample. In the end, I expect that second debate to have little lasting effect on the polls. I will be posting my take on the debate shortly, that will explain my rationale.