Monday, October 22, 2012

October 22 21 (night), 2012 Analysis

[note: I wrote this up before going to bed last night, then RCP went and tossed out a bunch of polls over night.  I thought the analysis at the bottom was important, so I'm posting this anyway]

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+6 - IBD/Tipp
O+1 -Battleground
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
O+3 - Hartford Courant/UConn
Even - NBC/WSJ

O+1.09% - Current RCP Average
O+0.57% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.05% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.13% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.20% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.76% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Rasmussen moved to Romney +2 today. IBD/Tipp poll however is showing itself to be total garbage.  It moved from O+3 to O+6 is a single day in a multiday tracking poll.  Interestingly, it didn't do that through increasing Obama's support.  That stays stuck at 47%.  Instead support for Romney switched to Undecided.  This one poll is dragging the RCP average down to an unrealistic level.  However, note that the overall averages did not move much since yesterday.  This is because once the Tipp poll is reweighted, it comes close to the averages.

The new NBC/WSJ poll enters the average, bringing us up to 8 polls in this compilation.  I'm becoming quite confident in my model, since all of the polls are showing similar results once normalized.  For example, in the D+3 model we get a range of R+1.26 to R+3.82 (ignoring the Tipp O+0.28).  This is about a 2.5% range over 7 polls.  That is statistically very stable.

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