Tuesday, October 23, 2012

October 22, 2012 Ohio Update

We have one new Ohio poll from Suffolk University to include in the mix.  Their D/R/I is 39/35/27, and they do not break down support from Independents individually.  It is in line with the other Ohio polls:

R+8.50% - Using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.78% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.34% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.66% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+2.50% - Using a D+3 turnout model

When included with the other Ohio polls, the numbers don't change very much:

Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
O+1 - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+5 -Quinnipiac
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
Even - Suffolk

O+1.86% - Current RCP Average
R+8.86% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.78% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.66% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.94% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.79% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

Romney continues to lead in all reasonable turnout models.

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