Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Oh My God

Rasmussen released his September poll of partisan ID today, and it is a bombshell.  To refresh your memory, this poll is conducted monthly and asks 15,000 people what party they are affiliated with.  In my Rasmussen Party ID model, I use a 3 month average of these numbers.

In August he released this poll and it showed a Republican advantage of 4 points.  This poll has never showed a Republican advantage of more than a single point, and usually shows a significant Democrat advantage, since it is self identification and doesn't track likely voters.

Most of us considered the August result to be an outlier, because it was such a huge increase and goes against all history, 2010 included.  I personally expected August to be influenced by the Republican convention, and that in September the Democrats would return to parity due to a bounce from their convention.

That isn't what happened.  The September number confirms the Republican edge with a 2.6 point advantage.  Very unexpected and very significant.

With the new September number, the 3 month average changes:

Old  -  New
33.8    33.8   Democrat
36.0    36.4   Republican
30.3    29.8   Independent

I can't over emphasize this.  Earlier today I was arguing with CAC, who thinks a D+3 turnout is the most likely result.  I've been arguing that an Even turnout is much more likely.  But this poll says that R+2 or better is the most likely result.

With this new average, Romney is leading in the RCP average by 3.9%!



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