Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Fox News Poll - October 31, 2012

Likely Voter, 1128 sample size, Tied 46-46, 6% undecided.

This poll was last run on October 10th.  Despite the headline that "Romney's lead has vanished and it is all tied up", that is not true.  The last time this roll was run it had a D/R/I of 40/39/20, or D+1 with Independents favoring Romney by 16.  This time the D/R/I has moved to D+5, 42/37/18.  However, Independent preference for Romney has dropped to 7 points.

Putting these numbers through the models, we get the following:

Even - Current result
R+1.4 - 2008 turnout
R+5.8 - 2010 turnout
R+5.8 - 2004 turnout
R+7.4 - Rasmussen Party ID

Across EVERY model, Romney's support has increased by 2 points in this poll.  This shows very strong movement toward Romney in the last two weeks.

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