Wednesday, October 10, 2012

IBD/TIPP Poll - October 10, 2012

Likely Voter, 757 sample size, Romney leads 49-44, 6% undecided.

This is a tracking poll, so like Rasmussen, I'm not going to be writing this poll up every day.  However, I'll do one more analysis of this poll, since it shifted so much since yesterday.  Like yesterday, it has a D/R/I of 39/31/30.  Independent preference has expanded from 18% to 20% in one day.

If you are suspecting that the reweighting results are going to be insane, you are right.

R+5 - Current result
R+7.5 - 2008 turnout
R+12.6 - 2010 turnout
R+12.7 - 2004 turnout
R+14.4 - Rasmussen Party ID

If this poll is correct, Romney will win California.


  1. This can't be right.

    I mean, seriously. It's just one debate. And this is the god-king Obama we are talking about here. He has enough crazed loyalists to win a blue state like California, even if he still loses big elsewhere.


    Or, are we actually headed for a Reaganesque landslide? Romney winning 400+ EVs? Because that is what would undoubtedly happen if Romney won California.

  2. It's a joke :) No I don't expect Romney to win CA. I also don't expect Romney to win by 14.

    However, I think a +14 win would make CA pretty close. :)

  3. Yeah; I live in CA, and certainly don't expect Romney to win; I know too many people still talking up DuhWon. However, political bumper stickers are very rare this year... and R's outnumber O's by about 3-1. Orange County, but still...

    Thanks for the work you do, Dave. I'm a very rare poster over at the HQ, but it's appreciated.

  4. Nice to think about, but where did they poll people? Outside a GOP victory office in Orange county?