Battleground Poll - October 29, 2012
Likely Voter, 1000 sample size, Obama leads 49-48, 3% undecided.
This poll is surprising a of people, since Brit Hume said on the air yesterday that it would report Romney +5 today. Let's look at the details and the reweights, then I'll make a comment or two. First of all, the D/R/I of this poll remains the same as last time at D+2 or 43/41/18. There was also a significant shift in Independent preference from Obama +1 to Romney +10. However, Obama picked up 2 points of support, and Romney lost 1.
Putting these results through the models, we get the following:
O+1 - Current result
O+2.3 - 2008 turnout
O+0.2 - D+3 turnout
R+1.7 - 2010 turnout
R+1.7 - 2004 turnout
R+3.2 - Rasmussen Party ID
This poll is showing solid gains for Obama in the last week across all turnout models.
Now, having said that, I'm very skeptical of this poll. 73% of Romney supporters say they are "extremely likely" to vote while only 60% of Obama supporters say the same. Additionally, the preference of Independents moved from a tiny advantage for Obama to a 10 point advantage for Romney. Yet Romney is trailing?
@numbersmuncher mentioned this yesterday, so I'm going to say it flat out. I think Democrats are lying to the pollsters that they have already voted. They are doing this to game the polls, because if they say they have voted, they go straight through the likely voter screens. You don't lose elections with a 13% enthusiasm edge and 10% edge in Independents. That is demographically impossible. One set of numbers or the other are wrong in this poll.