Tuesday, October 23, 2012

ABC/WaPo Poll - October 23, 2012

Likely Voter, 1376 sample size, Obama leads 49-48, 1% undecided.

Unlike the CBS poll, the ABC poll is an OK one for Romney, though not as strong as some of the others we have seen recently, like Battleground, NBC, and Monmouth.  The D/R/I of the poll is a supportable D+5 at 34/29/37.  There is at least an argument to be made for a turnout similar to this.  ABC provides no information in their internals regarding the preference of Independents.  As I result, I am having to assume it is 50/50.

Putting the results into the reweighting models we get the following:

O+1 - Current result
O+2.6 - 2008 turnout model
R+0.5 - D+3 turnout model
R+2.9 - 2010 turnout model
R+3.0 - 2004 turnout model
R+4.9 - Rasmussen Party ID

This poll supports the conventional wisdom that we will have a D+3 turnout, and a close race.

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