Saturday, October 6, 2012

October 6, 2012 Analysis - Debates DO matter

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+2 - ABC/WaPo
O+7 - NPR
Even - National Journal

O+2.17% - Current RCP Average
O+2.13% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.00% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+3.15% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+4.71% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Today shows an absolutely MONSTER move toward Romney in the poll averages.  RCP has dropped Quinnipiac from their average, and Rasmussen's daily track factors in the results of Romney's big win in the debate.

Romney is leading by almost 5 points when using the Rasmussen Party ID poll turnout model.  If the election were held today, Romney would win in a landslide.

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