October 4, 2012 Analysis
O+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
O+3 - CNN/ORG
O+2 - ABC/WaPo
O+4 - Quinipiac
O+7 - NPR
Even - National Journal
O+3 - NBC/WSJ
O+3.00% - Current RCP Average
O+3.11% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.13% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+2.27% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+3.90% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
No new polls today, and the Rasmussen Daily Track remained the same as yesterday. Obviously, Romney's decisive win in last night's debate is not reflected in any polls yet.
The big news is the Rasmussen Party ID poll that I discussed yesterday. With that confirming a significant Republican lead in party affiliation, we see a major shift in the average in the Rasmussen Party ID model, with Romney taking almost a 4 point lead.
Note that Rasmussen's Daily Track is using a D+3 model, which severely conflicts with his monthly Party ID poll. One of these two is wrong.