Wednesday, October 24, 2012

October 24, 2012 Analysis

I didn't realize this, but apparently the ABC/WaPo poll will be a tracking poll from now until the election.  All of the polls from yesterday remained in the average, but there was movement in all four of the tracking polls.

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+4 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+2 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+2 - CBS

R+0.89% - Current RCP Average
O+0.57% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.17% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.38% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.43% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.14% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

The drop we saw yesterday was erased today due to improved support from Romney in the tracking polls.  Obama received an additional point of support in Gallup, while the Romney top line number of 51 remained unchanged.  Meanwhile, the other 3 tracking polls all showed a 2 point move toward Romney.  Romney leads by at least 2 points in the race, nationally.  Baring some very unlikely occurrence, such as a major gaffe, this race will now remain stable through the election, and Romney will win.

1 comment:

  1. The delay between polls being announced/tweeted in the afternoon and reading your breakdowns the next morning is getting unbearable. ;)

    Keep up the fine work!