November 1, 2012 Analysis (posted early)I'm sure with RCP moving into a tie and the National Journal poll being released, people are nervous about what is going on. I figured I would post early and hopefully allay some fears.
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+5 - Gallup
O+1.3 - IBD/Tipp
Even - ABC/WaPo
O+1 - Battleground
Even - Pew
R+1 - NPR
O+1 - CBS/NYT
Even - Fox
O+5 - National Journal
O+0.03% - Current RCP Average
O+0.56% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.46% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.51% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.24% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
With the bizarre National Journal poll entering the averages, we see the averages again move slightly toward Obama. Romney has just about given back all of his gains from a week ago, bringing the race back to the steady state we were at for the prior two weeks.
While it would be easy to blame the National Journal poll for bringing down the numbers (and to be clear, in this run of the models, that poll is the sole cause for the drop), over the last 3 days overall averages have dropped. I was expecting Rasmussen to move back to 50-47 today, as the Saturday sample dropped out, but that did not happen. Also, ABC/WaPo showed a one point move toward Obama, without changing their sample. We may well be seeing a slight movement in Obama's direction due to the Hurricane Sandy response.
Having said that, Romney is still far ahead in this race. Obama needs about a D+5 or D+6 turnout to make this a close race. There are certainly plenty of polls out there that are predicting that exact result, but all of the early vote results, partisan enthusiasm measurements, and Independent support (which is still averaging 8 points, unchanged over the last 4 days) do not make such a result very likely.
With Gallup and other polls on hiatus due to the storm, we will need to wait to see if other tracking polls confirm this movement toward Obama, or if they remain stable.