Friday, October 19, 2012

Hartford Courant/UConn Poll - October 19, 2012

Likely Voter, 1023 sample size, Obama leads 48-45, 6% undecided.

It's been a few days since a national poll has been released, other than the tracking polls.  I've been curious to see if a new poll will confirm Romney's lead. This poll has not appeared in the RCP average for a long time, and it is good news for Romney.  The D/R/I sample for this poll is 47/39/15 with a very small (2%) Independent edge for Romney.

Yes, you read that right, 47% of the likely voter sample is Democrats.

Let the games begin.

When we adjust this result to the different models, unsurprisingly, Romney looks pretty good:

O+3 - Current result
R+0.7 - 2008 turnout
R+3.0 - D+3 turnout
R+4.7 - 2010 turnout
R+4.9 - 2004 turnout
R+6.0 - Rasmussen Party ID

Romney leads in this poll, even with a national turnout equal to 2008.

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