Monday, October 22, 2012

October 22, 2012 Analysis

Welcoming Gallup to the averages

 Thanks to all of the criticism that Gallup has been getting, they revealed a bit of their internals over the weekend.  Enough that I think I can estimate their poll enough to include it in my averages.  Since RCP just uses top line results, I don't think I can be criticized for lack of integrity.  I am using a D/R/I for Gallup of 36/37/27 and assuming no preference by Independents.  This might be a little conservative, but it lets me get them into the averages.  If that ridiculous Tipp poll can be included, Gallup should be too.

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+7 - Gallup
O+6 - IBD/Tipp
R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
O+3 - Hartford Courant/UConn

R+0.38% - Current RCP Average
R+0.37% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.87% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.86% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.94% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.42% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

Several polls were dropped over night, and the new Battleground and NBC/WSJ polls were added.  People hoping for an Obama victory should be worried, since the only two polls that are good news for him are Tipp and UConn, where both firms do not have a reputation for accuracy.

With this update, every average moves into an advantage for Romney, even the 2008 turnout model.


  1. Went to Q's site this AM hoping to find DRI split for their sample of 1548 in Ohio released this AM. Lots of info there but I could find no DRI split. Perhaps I overlooked it. Have you gleaned that info (the split) yet?

  2. The split for the CBS/Q poll is D35/R26/I34.

  3. 26R? Umm...ok. Is this the last Q/CBS poll of Ohio? This is what they will set their reputation on? BTW, thanks for the numbers fellow anon.

  4. Yeah, I heard this poll had been released. I'll run it though my Ohio model when I have a chance. But a D+9 sample getting an Obama +5 result? Garbage.

  5. Typical of some of these pollsters. IMO, I only trust Ras and Gallup. Nationally, I think Romney's support is in between those two (so 3-4 pts).

    1. I agree, my feeling has been the final numbers will be somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup. Both right now show Romney winning.

      What's strange is, I though Gallup would be the low side and Rasmussen the more "optimistic" scenario. Instead, this year they're flipped.

    2. We will see, but I think Gallup is going to hit it right on the nose this time. Rasmussen is out of sync with his own partisan ID poll. I think even or R+1 is the turnout we will see. My opinion is that everyone decided this cycle would be D+3, and they are going to take that all the way to the end, even when evidence shows otherwise.