Thursday, October 25, 2012

October 25, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:

Tracking Polls
R+4 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+3 - Gallup
O+3 - IBD/Tipp
R+1 - ABC/WaPo

R+2 - Battleground
Even - NBC/WSJ
R+3 - Monmouth
O+3 - Zogby
O+2 - CBS
R+2 - AP/GfK

R+0.70% - Current RCP Average
O+0.79% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.97% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.19% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.24% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.96% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

The very large Romney samples that had been included in the Gallup tracking poll finally dropped out of their average yesterday, bringing their results down to a Romney +3 lead.  Importantly, now both Gallup and Rasmussen are lining up, showing Romney at 50%.  The IBD/Tipp track picked up a bit of support for Obama, but remains over sampled with a heavy D+7 skew.  ABC/WaPo remained about the same.

The new poll entering the average is the monthly AP/GfK poll that shows a decent lead for Romney.  This is one of the first polls I've noticed that is correcting it's sample to reflect a more reasonable assumption regarding turnout.  It is now showing D+4, where a month ago it was D+13.

Overall the race remains stable after the Monday debate with very little movement for either candidate.  Romney's averages dropped slightly due to the Gallup drop, but he retains the momentum.

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