Pew Poll - October 8, 2012Likely Voter, 1081 sample size, Romney leads 49-45, 6% undecided.
This poll will make Democrat heads explode (and already is). Suddenly people who thought partisan ID samples were no big deal are freaking out about a poll that has an R+3 split. Chuck Todd is having a hissy fit on Twitter.
The really weird thing about this poll is that the likely voter screen almost exactly matches the 3 month average for Rasmussen's Partisan ID poll.
Rasmussen D/R/I - 33.8/36.4/29.8
Pew D/R/I - 33.4/36/3/30.3
This tells me that this poll is a confirming event for Rasmussen's Party ID poll, and represents a good view of what the turnout would be if the election were held today. Ironically, because of this sample, under all of the turnout models the results are worse for Romney than the top line number.
I can live with that.
R+4 - Current result
O+1.2 - 2008 turnout
R+3.8 - 2010 turnout
R+3.7 - 2004 turnout
R+5.7 - Rasmussen Party ID
The fun thing is that this poll must be included in RCP, since they just average without weighting. They can't change their model at this time. So the RCP just tanked for Obama.