October 22, 2012 Ohio UpdateI was hoping not to have to do a daily update on Ohio, but the pace of new polling coming out of Ohio is making that impossible.
Today CBS/Quinnipiac (I've actually learned to spell that now) released a new Ohio poll showing Obama ahead by 5, 50-45. It continues the tradition in Ohio, now being the 7th poll in a row to over sample Democrats by an unreasonable amount, in this case by 9 points. The D/R/I of their sample is 35/26/38. Amusingly, the Republican's have a 12 point enthusiasm advantage and Independents favor Romney by 7 points. Yet Obama still leads by 5. Anyway, putting this poll into the Ohio model, we get the following:
R+6.79% - Using the 2004 turnout model
O+4.31% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+3.05% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+2.27% - Using the 2012 registration model
O+0.36% - Using a D+3 turnout model
For once, Obama does actually lead in the D+3 turnout model, making this poll slightly better for him, than others. However, I question how he gets to a D+3 turnout when he is 12 points under water in enthusiasm.
Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:
O+3 - Survey USA
O+1 - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox
O+2.17% - Current RCP Average
R+8.92% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.51% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.72% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.99% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.84% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
This update to the RCP gives Romney about another .25% support across all turnout models, and he retains his lead in all possible turnout scenarios.