Friday, October 19, 2012

October 19, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
O+1 -Battleground
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA

O+0.08% - Current RCP Average
O+0.46% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.27% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.52% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.22% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

It looks like whatever bounce Obama received from the debate on Tuesday is now gone, with the tracking polls moving back to their pre-debate status.  Independents in both Rasmussen and IBD/Tipp are now favoring Romney by about 10.

I want to be very clear about this.  If the election were held today, Romney would win.  Obama's best possible  GOTV can not produce a turnout advantage of better than a 3 point advantage, and in those circumstances Romney holds a better than 2 point advantage.  It is very likely that we have passed the point of no return for Obama.


  1. Thanks for your great analyses. I am hoping you are right...

  2. From your keyboard and calculator to God's ear, Dave.

    Do you have anything on the Missouri senate race to added to your senate post below? I keep hoping Mitt will drag his sorry butt across the line there.

    Thanks for all you do here. Great stuff.

    1. Nothing really. The Akin race is a tough one to figure, but Romney has a huge lead there. Close to 12 points. Given McCaskill scandal that is swirling, I don't see how that one can be a runaway for her. There has been no polling there since 10/2. Who knows what is going on.

    2. Well, maybe this will be one of those "no news is good news" things. I can't see them sending her back to the Senate no matter who she is running against if they are voting for Romney by 10 points or so at the same time. But, then again, I never thought the nutjob running for Senate in Massachusetts would beat Brown either, even in that state so who knows.