October 19, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
O+0.08% - Current RCP Average
O+0.46% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.27% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.47% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.52% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.22% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
It looks like whatever bounce Obama received from the debate on Tuesday is now gone, with the tracking polls moving back to their pre-debate status. Independents in both Rasmussen and IBD/Tipp are now favoring Romney by about 10.
I want to be very clear about this. If the election were held today, Romney would win. Obama's best possible GOTV can not produce a turnout advantage of better than a 3 point advantage, and in those circumstances Romney holds a better than 2 point advantage. It is very likely that we have passed the point of no return for Obama.