Senate Update - October 18, 2012Some recent polling is out there that is causing me to shift my percentages on individual Senate races:
- Indiana 90% - Rasmussen has recently polled this race and Mourdock is up 5 and almost at 50%.
- Nevada 95% - Heller has this pretty much sewn up. Two recent polls, including Rasmussen have Heller up at least 6. Rasmussen has Heller at the magic 50% mark.
- Wisconsin 60% - The Marist poll that give Baldwin +4 is Dem +5. Marquette has Thompson up by 1.
- Montana 50% - This is starting to look tough. Rasmussen has it at a 48-48 tie.
- Massachusetts 45% - Polling is starting to look bad for Brown, with Rasmussen showing Warren at 49 and leading by 2.
- Virginia 50% - Allen is polling much better now WeAsk has him at +5, while Rasmussen has Kaine up 1.
- Florida 50% - Mack is starting to look good. Rasmussen has Nelson up 1 and even though PPP has Nelson up 11, Nelson still is at 45. Nelson isn't even close to 50% in any poll.
- Ohio 65% - Rasmussen has Brown at +1, and the Survey USA poll is heavily over sampled with Democrats. Brown is short of 50% as an incumbent.
- Pennsylvania 35% - Casey's lead has dropped in all polls, and Smith is in striking distance. Casey is not at 50%.
- Connecticut 35% - Murphy is still not hitting 50%, there are a lot of undecideds.
Odds of winning the Senate = 78.8%