October 13, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
O+1 - Battleground
R+4 - Pew
Even - Wash Times/Zogby
R+1 - Survey USA
R+0.86% - Current RCP Average
O+0.38% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.44% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.45% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.18% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
With a couple of very good Obama polling days from right after the debate falling out of Rasmussen's reweight sample, his sample bias has now returned to D+3 and it now properly showing a slight Romney lead. I consider this to be a flaw in his methodology. His D+3 is still quite different from the R+2.6 he has in his monthly poll.
IBD/Tipp is now coming back into reality, finding Romney leading independents by 9 points, instead of the 20 points they were finding earlier. This is pulling them back to Even. However, their poll is still D+7, with a significant undersample of Republicans. With a more realistic sample, Romney leads by 7 in the IBD/Tipp poll.
RCP continues to refuse to drop the Battleground poll from their average. It is a pretty old poll now, with 2/3rd of the samples taken before the first debate. However, it is the only good news in the RCP average for Obama. Can't have the RCP consisting of zero polls giving Obama a lead, can we?
Overall, the race is remaining stable with Romney holding a strong lead nationally.