Saturday, October 13, 2012

October 13, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
O+1 - Battleground
R+4 - Pew
Even - Wash Times/Zogby
R+1 - Survey USA

R+0.86% - Current RCP Average
O+0.38% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.44% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.45% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.18% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

With a couple of very good Obama polling days from right after the debate falling out of Rasmussen's reweight sample, his sample bias has now returned to D+3 and it now properly showing a slight Romney lead.  I consider this to be a flaw in his methodology.  His D+3 is still quite different from the R+2.6 he has in his monthly poll.

IBD/Tipp is now coming back into reality, finding Romney leading independents by 9 points, instead of the 20 points they were finding earlier.  This is pulling them back to Even.  However, their poll is still D+7, with a significant undersample of Republicans.  With a more realistic sample, Romney leads by 7 in the IBD/Tipp poll.

RCP continues to refuse to drop the Battleground poll from their average.  It is a pretty old poll now, with 2/3rd of the samples taken before the first debate.  However, it is the only good news in the RCP average for Obama.  Can't have the RCP consisting of zero polls giving Obama a lead, can we?

Overall, the race is remaining stable with Romney holding a strong lead nationally.


  1. Looking at the President's support on the general poll.

    The page has no more blue on it!

    Interesting that the best poll for Obama is the Ras where he is at 48. Obama's average support right not is 46.0, not good for the prez.

  2. President's almost always match their approval rating on Election Day. Every state Bush was under 50% approval in 2004, he lost. I think the one state that he lost despite being above 50% was Wisconsin, which was a squeaker.

    If the President is averaging a 46% approval rating, he looks like he's toast to me.

    What I'm curious about, is the race "settling" or will Romney's debate bounce carry him through the election.

  3. I was referring to the 46% average in the O vs R polls. In the job approval avg at RCP Obama is at 49.4 which is a little confounding it's that high. He had some help with Gallup changing their formula. Over the summer and fall 2004 Bush had slightly better numbers.

    1. I find it a little hard to find a job approval of 51% translating into support stuck at 46%. I think those approval numbers are suffering with the same over sampling problem the rest of the polls have.

  4. I looked at the numbers of Bush in Oct/Sept vs Obama. Bush had consistently over 50 in approval and never hit 47 disapproval. Obama is over 47 consistently.

    Bush's spread was averaging 3.5 and Obamas 1.5.