Tuesday, October 16, 2012

October 16, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
Even - IBD/Tipp
R+4 - Pew
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA

R+0.67% - Current RCP Average
O+0.59% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.51% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.33% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

As I expected, Rasmussen dropped a point for Romney yesterday.  He should go back up to 2 today as the Monday poll kicks in.  IBD/Tipp balanced out this 1 point drop, with a 1 point gain.  The results of all the models are almost identical to yesterday.

Obviously, with the debate tonight things are likely to change a great deal in the next few days.

1 comment:

  1. My guess is tonight will be something of a draw, I doubt either candidate will really dominate, and I doubt either will really have a fatal gaffe.

    Obama is supposed to be more aggressive, but that's not a role he does well, most of his appeal has been that he seems "cool" under pressure.

    I also tend to think that the first debate is really the one that matters most, I could see a huge drop off in viewers tonight.

    I'm hoping Romney's polling remains unchanged, but I'm sure the MSM already has the articles written about Obama's being the "Comeback Kid".

    But the more people see Romney next to Obama, the more impressive figure Romney seems to be.