Monday, October 15, 2012

October 15, 2012 Analysis

Polls included:
R+2 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+1 - IBD/Tipp
R+4 - Pew
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA

R+0.67% - Current RCP Average
O+0.59% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+2.23% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.50% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.32% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model

The Zogby poll has been removed from the RCP average (why I don't know, there are older polls in the average), and the ABC/Washington Post poll has been added.  This results in little change in the averages, since the WaPo poll is very good for Romney (once you get into the internals).  Rasmussen expanded Romney's lead with a rare good polling day for him on a Saturday.  I expect this to drop back down to a 1 point lead today, then jump back up to 2 tomorrow.

Overall, Romney remains in control of this race.


  1. Dave,

    Great analysis, as per usual.

    -Jim Scrummy

  2. Is it possible to determine a state-by-state correlation to the national results? From what I've read elsewhere, you can only lose the electoral college while winning the popular vote if you win the popular vote by less than ~1% +/- 0.5%. Still, curious about what a +4.5% or +6.3% means on a state-by-state basis.

    1. I don't really even want to try. It would take me a week at least to figure out how to model it correctly. By the time I had a good analysis, the election would be over.

      I pretty much rely on the analysis Jay Cost did back in 2004 that showed that the Electoral College will always follow the national vote in any election determined by over 0.5%.

      The reasoning is that while people like to argue that "it is 51 small elections!", that isn't really true. Each state has demographics that tend to tilt them toward blue or red, but the election itself is nationalized to a great extent now. Running one message in New York and a different one in Iowa is impossible now, due to the speed of communications and the Internet.

      So the general opinions of the candidates are now national in nature, as are the trends that move the electorate toward the blue or red sides. If Wisconsin votes for Romney, you can take it to the bank that Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado have also voted for Romney. If California votes for Romney, then so does every other state.

  3. BTW - previous comment (as well as this comment) is by NED

  4. NED, I remember a web site where you could plug that in and it'd offer an electoral number, but I can't find the link, maybe someone here knows.