Sunday, October 21, 2012

October 21, 2012 Ohio Update

Two new polls in the RCP Ohio average, PPP and Gravis.  It is really hard to keep from suspecting some form of conspiracy, when both polls reweighted their samples to be more favorable to Obama from the last time they were run.  The result is that neither poll shows Romney leading, when he clearly is if you examine the internals.

PPP Obama leads 49-48.  They have broadened from the D+4 they used last time to D+8, D/R/I of 42/35/23.  Independents favor Romney by 7%. Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:

R+9.79% - Using the 2004 turnout model
R+0.77% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+6.70% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+6.04% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+3.95% - Using a D+3 turnout model

Again, Romney leads in all turnout models, including if the electorate matches 2008. I'm noticing a pattern.

With Gravis it is a 47-47 tie.  This one is even worse than PPP, if you can believe it.  It is D+9 with a D/R/I of 41/32/27.  Independents favor Romney by an incredible 19% (52-33), yet somehow Romney can only eek out a tie. Reweighting this poll using the various turnout models we get the following:

R+12.48% - Using the 2004 turnout model
R+3.27% - Using the 2008 turnout model
R+9.34% - Using the 2010 turnout model
R+8.62% - Using the 2012 registration model
R+6.55% - Using a D+3 turnout model

If the electorate in Ohio matched 2008, Romney would be ahead by over 3 points.  This makes 6 of the 8 polls used in the RCP average that over sample to match or exceed the 2008 turnout, yet even with this insane artificial boost, Obama can only manage a 2 point lead.

Here are the results of averaging all of the current polls in the RCP average:

Polls included:
O+3 - Survey USA
R+1 - ARG
O+1 - Rasmussen
Even - Gravis
O+1 - PPP
O+3 - Fox

O+2.13% - Current RCP Average
R+8.61% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
O+0.74% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+5.43% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+6.04% - Average using the 2012 registration model
R+2.58% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

Ohio is slipping away from Obama, since even in their most optimistic model for this year (D+3) they are close to 3 points behind in Ohio.  This matches the activities of the Obama campaign, as they begin to stop campaigning in Ohio and start trying to shore up everything that is left to keep Romney from getting those last 4 EVs he needs.  This is why you are seeing campaigning in NH, CO, IA,WI, and NV.  If Obama loses any of them, he loses.


  1. Dave, I came across your blog recently from Ace of Spades. Just wanted to say thanks for your efforts, you are doing excellent work. Polls should be reported with a range of outcomes based on possible turnout models, just like you are doing it. But that takes too much work and brainpower, so nobody else will. Thanks again.

  2. Hey Dave, loving the site and I will be checking it out daily from here on out. Just curious, why don't you include Gallup in your analysis?

    1. I think that he's said over at the Ace site that it's because Gallup doesn't provide internals for him to check.

    2. Exactly. If I include Gallup, it is apple to oranges. Trust me I WISH I could include Gallup. :)

  3. Dave, I also found you from ace if spades blog. You have a really great analysis especially with your turnout model system. These polls are cooked and its nice to see someone pick them apart to see how they a formulated.

    I'll be following daily until nov 6th!

  4. Dave, you asked on aos what ras was using as a partisan split. on the polls2012 blogspot site, they are saying that on the ras premium site they now have a dri of 40-37.5-22.5

  5. Dave,

    I wonder what the "endgame" for the pollsters will be this election cycle?

    Do you think they'll adjust their polls in the last week to more realistic models, or will they go down with their ship until the every end, still pushing ridiculous D+9 polls?

    I tend to think they'll flip at the last minute, and the chattering classes will talk about America "deciding" in the last week to throw Obama out.

    Who knows, this election could have been over as soon as Romney got the nomination, but MSM polls have muddied the waters to where people thought it was purely the debate performance.

  6. Dave,

    Where are you getting information that Obama is stopping the Ohio campaign?