October 18, 2012 AnalysisPolls included:
R+1 - Rasmussen Daily Track
R+1 - Fox News
O+2 - IBD/Tipp
O+3 - ABC/WaPo
R+1 - Survey USA
O+0.42% - Current RCP Average
O+0.81% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+1.94% - Average using the D+3 turnout model
R+4.14% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.20% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+5.88% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
The big news yesterday was the Gallup poll showing Romney with a 6 point lead, hitting 51%. Of course, I don't include that poll in my average, because I can't see their internals. However, if I was able to, all of these models would reflect higher levels of support to Romney.
Both Rasmussen and IBD/Tipp moved one point in Obama's direction. This is not surprising. Rasmussen does not include any polling from after the debate yet, but IBD/Tipp does. They will be capturing a larger number of Democrats in their likely voter screen due to increased enthusiasm. Keep in mind though, IBD/Tipp is a D+7 sample size, yet is only showing an Obama lead of 2.