NBC/WSJ Poll - October 2, 2012
Likely Voter, 832 sample size, Obama leads 49-46, 3% undecided.
NBC/Wall Street Journal release a new poll which is decent for Romney. It's not as outstanding as National Journal, but it is still good. The D/R/I of the poll is 45/39/16 for a D+6 sample. As always with this particular poll, the Independent sample is excessively low. This is because they push Independents harder to identify with a party, instead of leaving at the actual registration. Independents favor Romney by 2 points.
The turnout models give the following results:
O+3 - Current result
O+1.9 - 2008 turnout
R+2.2 - 2010 turnout
R+2.4 - 2004 turnout
R+3.3 - Rasmussen Party ID
Under (what I consider to be) reasonable turnout models, Romney holds a small but significant lead.