STOP THE PRESSES!I'm stunned. I really am not sure what to make of these numbers. If you thought Rasmussen's September poll of partisan ID was beyond belief, well the October numbers are incredible. To refresh your memory, this poll is conducted monthly and asks 15,000 people what party they are affiliated with. In my Rasmussen Party ID model, I use a 3 month average of these numbers.
The new October number is way beyond anything I was expecting. The new numbers are:
The already amazingly good September number of R+2.6 went to R+5.8!
With the new October number, the 3 month average changes:
Old - New
33.8 33.6 Democrat
36.4 37.8 Republican
29.8 28.6 Independent
I will be now using an R+4.2 sample for my Rasmussen Party ID model. Expect to see that number move much higher. My analysis below changes to Romney leading by 6.9% in that model.