GallupI'm seeing lots of discussion about Gallup down in the comments, so let me address it.
First of all, I am guessing with this poll. They don't release internals, and I am basing everything off a partisan split that they published when they were taking heat for showing Romney so far ahead.
The top line number is Romney leading 49-48 with 2% still undecided. They give no indication of Independent preference. However, being at 48 is not a good place for Obama to be. My suspicion is that Gallup has been hit by the same "early voter" problem that all the other polls have. We never got to see this play out, because we didn't see the daily tracking poll trend down over the last week. Gallup uses a very tight likely voter screen, but if someone says "I voted" they go right in, regardless of whether it is true or not.
But, let's take the numbers at face value. Putting this poll into my models using the same D+0.2 partisan split that they were using before, we get the following results.
If turnout is D+3, Obama leads by 0.5%
If turnout matches 2010, Romney leads by 1.8%
If turnout matches the Rasmussen Party ID poll, Romney leads by 5.0%
This poll only trails Pew right now as the best case scenario for Obama, and he still loses the election by almost 2 points if our turnout matches 2010. And keep in mind, I am using every pessimistic assumption in this calculation, such as Independents have no preference between the candidates.
So quit worrying, and go vote.